Virginia is at play in 2024
Posted on | January 5, 2024 | No Comments
In 2020 Trump lost Virginia by 10%.
Current polls that do not include third party candidates show Trump cutting this deficit by 50% and being 5% behind on average.
However, if you include the third party candidates, Trump is doing much better. While Robert Kennedy is mostly irrelevant, as he draws evenly from Trump and Biden and is not likely to get on the ballot in too many states, Green party candidates-Dr. Jill Stein and independent Cornell West really hurt Biden, they pull on average 2% each and they are likely to appear on the ballot in most states. This cuts Biden’s lead by 4% and gives him only 1% lead, which is a dead heat
2024 Virginia General Election: Trump vs Biden
| POLLSTER | DATE |
BIDEN
(D) |
TRUMP (R)
|
SPREAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 11/12 – 12/19 | 48.5 | 43.5 |
Biden+5.0
|
| Richmond Times-Dispatch | 12/15 – 12/19 | 49 | 43 |
Biden+6
|
| Roanoke College | 11/12 – 11/20 | 48 | 44 |
Biden+4
|
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