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Review of Politics, Economics, Constitution, Law and World Affairs by Attorney and Doctor Orly Taitz


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When the people fear their government, there is tyranny.
When the government fears the people, there is liberty.
-- Thomas Jefferson

During times of universal deceit, telling the truth
becomes a revolutionary act.  -- George Orwell

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they
fight you, then you win.  -- Mahatma Gandhi

Look how average of polls in most battleground states favored Clinton in 2016 and underestimated Trump. In some states, like Wisconsin, they underestimated Trump by over 7%

Posted on | November 2, 2020 | No Comments

 

State Electoral
votes		 Polling average Final result Difference
Arizona 11 Trump +4[504] Trump +3.5 Clinton +0.5
Colorado 9 Clinton +2.9[505] Clinton +4.9 Clinton +2
Florida 29 Trump +0.2[506] Trump +1.2 Trump +1
Georgia 16 Trump +4.8[507] Trump +5.1 Trump +0.3
Iowa 6 Trump +3[508] Trump +9.5 Trump +6.5
Maine 4 Clinton +4.5[509] Clinton +2.9 Trump +1.6
Michigan 16 Clinton +3.4[510] Trump +0.3 Trump +3.7
Minnesota 10 Clinton +6.2[511] Clinton +1.5 Trump +4.7
Nevada 6 Trump +0.8[512] Clinton +2.4 Clinton +3.2
New Hampshire 4 Clinton +0.6[513] Clinton +0.3 Trump +0.3
New Mexico 5 Clinton +5[514] Clinton +8.3 Clinton +3.3
North Carolina 15 Trump +1[515] Trump +3.7 Trump +2.7
Ohio 18 Trump +3.5[516] Trump +8.1 Trump +4.6
Pennsylvania 20 Clinton +1.9[517] Trump +0.7 Trump +2.6
Virginia 13 Clinton +5[518] Clinton +5.4 Clinton +0.4
Wisconsin 10 Clinton +6.5[519] Trump +0.7 Trump +7.2

Here are examples:

In 2016 Quinnipiac poll predicted Clinton win in North Carolina by 3%, however Trump won by 3.6%.  Quinnipiac was wrong by 6.6%. Similarly, CBS was wrong by 6.6%

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton (3-Way Race)
Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump (R)
Clinton (D)
 Spread
Final Results — — — 49.8 46.2 Trump +3.6
RCP Average 10/26 – 11/6 — — 46.5 45.7 Trump +0.8
NY Times/Siena* 11/4 – 11/6 800 LV 3.5 44 44 Tie
Quinnipiac 11/3 – 11/6 870 LV 3.3 45 48 Clinton +3
Gravis* 11/1 – 11/4 1250 RV 2.8 45 46 Clinton +1
Trafalgar Group (R)* 10/27 – 11/1 1150 2.9 49 44 Trump +5
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA 10/28 – 10/31 659 LV 3.9 51 44 Trump +7
CBS News/YouGov* 10/26 – 10/28 992 LV 4.1 45 48 Clinton +3

All North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

Both Monmouth and Quinnipiac predicted Hillary to win general election with 6% margin, they were very wrong

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton (4-Way)

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
 Spread
Final Results — — — 48.2 46.1 Clinton +2.1
RCP Average 11/1 – 11/7 — — 46.8 43.6 Clinton +3.2
Bloomberg 11/4 – 11/6 799 LV 3.5 46 43 Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking 11/4 – 11/7 1107 LV 3.1 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 11/4 – 11/7 3669 LV — 49 45 Clinton +4
LA Times/USC Tracking 11/1 – 11/7 2935 LV 4.5 44 47 Trump +3
ABC/Wash Post Tracking 11/3 – 11/6 2220 LV 2.5 49 46 Clinton +3
FOX News 11/3 – 11/6 1295 LV 2.5 48 44 Clinton +4
Monmouth 11/3 – 11/6 748 LV 3.6 50 44 Clinton +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/3 – 11/5 1282 LV 2.7 48 43 Clinton +5
CBS News 11/2 – 11/6 1426 LV 3.0 47 43 Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos 11/2 – 11/6 2196 LV 2.3 44 39 Clinton +5

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

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