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a comment from 538

Posted on | October 30, 2020 | No Comments

Nahuel Bosurgi

The way I see it, most of the states Trumps needs to win are within margin of error. According to RCP aggregates, he’s tied in Arizona as well (47 vs 47) and Ohio. If there’s a polling error favoring him, he wins.

Pennsylvania is the only, and most decisive state, where he’s not doing as well, but he’s doing better than in 2016 6 days before the election (4.3 now vs 4.9 in 2016).

Early voting is also showing Republicans about to catch up to Democrats in key battleground states like Arizona and Florida (they’re only down by 3%). He’s doing really well in Nevada too (only down by 35K ballots / 4%). On the flip side, there needs to be a huge turnout on election day in PA since they’re down by a 46%. Then there’s Colorado where Trump is down by 147K ballots (7%), which is something I wouldn’t expected.

Biden is in a better position, but in no way he has it in the bag. I don’t know how Mr. Silver’s model works, but I believe Trump has more than an 11% chance of winning in spite of the national polls. I believe the betting markets (64% vs 36%) are doing a better job at predicting the odds than models that mostly use polls.

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