Email sent to Real Clear Politics with a request to add Trafalgar poll to NC polling average
Posted on | November 2, 2016 | No Comments
Please, include in NC average Trafalgar poll, which shows Trump 5% ahead in NC
Via Trafalgar Group—
A new North Carolina Presidential poll of likely voters was released today, showing Donald Trump widening his lead over Hillary Clinton. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), a national political consulting and public relations firm, conducted the poll October 27th through November 1st.
The presidential results show Donald Trump leading with 49.13%, Hillary Clinton 44.16%, Gary Johnson 3.59%, Jill Stein 0.49%, and 2.63% undecided. TFG surveyed 1,154 likely general election voters using a random sample of registered voters in North Carolina. The survey was stratified to reflect the election demographics in North Carolina. The margin of error is +/- 2.88.
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “It’s our belief that there is a significant “Brexit” type undercurrent of support for Trump that many polls are not capturing. We have been asking a second ballot test question to measure who survey takers believe most their neighbors will vote for. In our Ohio, Florida, and this North Carolina survey we find a consistent pattern of Clinton support dropping 5-6% while Trump support increases 4.5-5.5% for this question.
Cahaly continued, “We believe the most accurate measure of support for each candidate is somewhere between how people answer for themselves and answer on behalf of their neighbors.”
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