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Dems led in 2014 in IA and NC in early voting, but GOP senate candidates won with a huge turnout on election day. Joni Ernst wo by 10%

Posted on | November 6, 2016 | 1 Comment

But if predictions from 2012 were iffy, predictions from 2010 and 2014 were awful. In 2010, analysts saw huge Democratic advantages in turnout in places such as Ohio and Iowa and thought that perhaps there was no enthusiasm gap in the election. In 2014, it was widely assumed that early vote totals were good news for Democrats in states including North Carolina and Iowa; Thom Tillis ended up winning in North Carolina on the back of strong Election Day turnout, while the 2014 Iowa Senate race was decidedly not close (as early vote analysts had suggested); Joni Ernst won by almost 10 points.

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Comments

One Response to “Dems led in 2014 in IA and NC in early voting, but GOP senate candidates won with a huge turnout on election day. Joni Ernst wo by 10%”

  1. Bob68
    November 6th, 2016 @ 7:14 pm

    If they are just looking at voter registration to come up with these numbers, they are meaningless. I have been a registered Democrat for over 40 years and I only voter once for a Democrat for president, (very bad decision), many years ago. For a long time it was necessary to be a registered Democrat because many local and county elections had no Republican candidates.

    I never bothered to change my registration, but I should if they are determining the predicted vote by party registration. Need to change it to “Independent”.

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