This evening the New York Times published an op-ed from an unnamed senior member of the Donald Trump administration who confirmed that Trump truly is as mentally defective as we’ve all come to suspect, and that – shockingly – the cabinet has considered ousting him by invoking the 25th Amendment. Even as this sends shockwaves across the American landscape, everyone is focused on the question of who wrote it. I can give you some hints.

First, as far as this op-ed’s legitimacy: the New York Times knows who wrote this, or else they wouldn’t have published it. There is zero doubt that this op-ed did indeed come from a “senior official in the Trump administration.” But who? There are a few clues in the article itself. First, the author is not necessarily a member of the cabinet. Instead, the remark is about “early whispers within the cabinet of invoking the 25th Amendment.” This merely means that it’s someone who has the trust of cabinet members who were willing to speak freely about the matter.

Second, this op-ed didn’t fall out of the sky. The author has clearly felt this way for a long time, but something specifically triggered the decision to make it public today. Looking in the news, yesterday’s excerpts from Bob Woodward’s book loom large, so we have to look at everyone caught up in the fallout from the book. But I don’t think it’s James Mattis or John Kelly, for the reason below.

Third, author self-identifies as a conservative, and expresses pride at the fact that the administration has accomplished conservative goals (deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy) in spite of Trump’s instability. This tells us a lot. If the author were a military person, even one who leans conservative, the “brag” would be about managing to keep America safe despite Trump’s antics, rather than being primarily about domestic conservative policy. To my mind, that rules out Mattis and Kelly. Gary Cohn is also caught up in the book controversy, but he resigned a long time ago, and this is a current member of the administration.

Fourth, there is a good chance that the author’s identity will end up becoming public. The author surely knows this, and understands the risk involved. If someone is leaving anyway, they’d be less concerned about the possibility of getting fired. White House Counsel Don McGahn is a conservative extremist who is unhappily on his way out the door. But he’s the point person for Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, and it would be weird for McGahn to do this right now, considering that it gives the Democrats a major new talking point for trying to derail Kavanaugh. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Raj Shah are also reportedly on their way out, so take that for whatever it’s worth.

Fifth, there’s the matter of who has the biggest axe to grind against Donald Trump. That’s probably Jeff Sessions, a primary target of Trump’s abuses for a year and a half, and he’s reportedly in danger of getting fired after the midterms. Yesterday we learned from the Woodward book that Trump called Sessions “mentally retarded” behind his back and made fun of his southern heritage. Could this have pushed Sessions over the edge?

Finally, there’s the matter of who stands to gain the most from the 25th Amendment. That would inarguably be Mike Pence. Earlier this evening Pence publicly stated support for Jeff Sessions. This letter includes Pence’s signature word “lodestar” which just about no one else uses. So are Pence and Sessions behind this?